The carrier stands to make more money on that hub flight while at the same time continuing to provide connectivity between Brussels and New York. If an airline has 50 people flying from Brussels to New York and its smallest long-haul aircraft seats 200 people, it makes more sense to route those Brussels flyers over a hub where it can then fill the New York bound plane with another 150 people from other cities before crossing the Atlantic Ocean. The rationale for big hubs is simple math. Major hubs - like those in Atlanta, London and Singapore - stand to benefit first as routes come back. "Airlines will need to consolidate passenger flows through a hub to make sure those flights are cash positive," said IATA chief economist Brian Pearce during a media briefing ahead of the organization's annual general meeting on Tuesday. That bottom-line focused mindset could have big implications for where airlines fly. Airlines will continue to focus on preserving cash to get through the crisis and then pay down the debt they racked up in the process. While the aviation world agrees that a vaccine is a critical step to getting many travelers back in the sky, the recovery will still be slow. Want more airline-specific news? Sign up for TPG's free new biweekly Aviation newsletter! And this stands even with the recent positive developments on COVID-19 vaccines. Airlines are expected to lose a staggering $118 billion this year and another $38 billion in 2021.Ī full recovery is not expected until 2024 at the earliest. Global air travel is now forecast to return to only about half of 2019 levels sometime next year, according to the latest forecast from the trade group the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The coronavirus pandemic has ravaged the industry. The picture is stark for airlines and the airports they serve.
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